Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
